Bismarck, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS63 KBIS 090905
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
405 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected across southwest
  and portions of south central North Dakota this afternoon
  through the early evening.

- 20 to 40 percent chance of rain showers today.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected through the end of the
  workweek.

- Temperatures will continue warming through the end of the
  week, with a cooler and more active period starting Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

An upper level shortwave cutting across the northern Plains is
favored to close off later this morning, becoming stacked with a
low pressure center found over northeastern North Dakota. A
cold front associated with this system is thus expected to dig
south across the forecast area through the day today, promoting
increasing cloud cover and low chances (20 to 40 percent) for
light rain through the early afternoon and early evening. With
modest model MUCAPE values of 200-300 J/KG becoming available
over portions of northwestern and central North Dakota this
afternoon, a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question,
though severe weather is not anticipated. When all is said and
done, measurable precipitation is expected to be fairly limited
by the time showers end late this evening, generally a few
tenths of an inch up to around 0.1", with the highest amounts
mainly found along an axis from the the northwest down to the
southeastern tip of Lake Sakakawea. Windy conditions are also
expected to develop ahead of and along the cold front pushing
through the forecast area today, with northwesterly winds with
speeds up to 25 to 30 MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH this afternoon.
With such high winds, and with much of the measurable
precipitation found further north, critical fire weather
conditions are expected over southwestern and portions of south
central North Dakota this afternoon. See the Fire Weather
Discussion section below for details. Otherwise today, high
temperatures today are forecast broadly from the mid 50s north
up to the lower 60s south.

Dry weather and warming temperatures are then anticipated
through the remainder of the workweek as an upper level ridge
settles over the northern Plains. High temperatures on Thursday
are similar to what they are today, in the 50s to lower 60s,
which Friday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with
widespread highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Breezy south
winds are possible Friday as the surface pressure gradient
tightens up due to a to a low pressure center ejecting off of
the rockies butts up against the broad high pressure lingering
over the eastern CONUS. As this surface The ruling ridge begin
to erode late Friday into Saturday as an aggressive, longwave
trough is progged to swing out of western Canada over the Great
Plains. This trough heralds a pattern shift back toward cooler
and wetter conditions through the weekend and into early next
week. Low chances for precipitation are expected to develop
across northern North Dakota late Friday through much of the day
Saturday as the aforementioned surface low is lifted up into
the Great Lakes region. As the more agitated pattern begins to
settle late Saturday, this is followed by a much more robust,
much more widespread medium to high chances for precipitation
that lingers through Sunday into early next week. With
temperatures trending cooler during this period, the question of
what type of precipitation arises. While all rain is current
advertised by the ensemble through the weekend, subfreezing low
temperature are then favored Monday morning. With this, a
general transition to a rain- snow mix is expected by Monday.
The potential for accumulating snow during this period is
currently low, however.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 06Z TAF period. The remnants of a few showers
continues to move eastward across south central North Dakota
at the time of this update, though the chances for any given
location to see precipitation reaching the ground is low.
Another round of precipitation is expected to spread across
western and central North Dakota this coming afternoon, with the
highest chance to see measurable precipitation across the north.
For this update, have added PROB30 groups for -SHRA for the
northern terminals of KXWA and KMOT through the afternoon.
Confidence remains too low to include mentions of precipitation
at any of our southern terminals at this time. Light west winds
will linger overnight, before becoming strong and turning
northwesterly through the afternoon and early evening today. The
strongest winds are anticipated to be in southwestern North
Dakota, where speeds are forecast be sustained at 20-25 knots
and gust up to 40 knots. More broadly, speeds up to 20 knot and
gusts to 30 knots can be expected this afternoon. Winds will
then diminish through the end of TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon through
the early evening for southwest and parts of south central North
Dakota. Strong northwest winds sustained around 30 mph and
gusting up to 45 mph are expected, with the strongest winds over
our far southwest counties. Minimum relative humidity is
forecast to drop to around 22 percent. With this, critical fire
weather conditions are expected this afternoon. Near critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the counties just north
of those in the Watch area.

Of note is that low chances for rain are expected across much of
the forecast area through the day today. However, most of this
precipitation is expected to remain north of the are under the
Red Flag Warning this afternoon. A brief shower or two is not
impossible over the southwest or south central this afternoon,
though the chances are low and the potential for measurable
precipitation is even lower. If and where such showers do
develop, however, gusty and erratic winds should be expected,
especially if it falls as virga.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ031>034-040>046-050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam
FIRE WEATHER...Adam